May 16th, 7:49am 2 comments

Swine Flu conspiracies in the Independent

I sign up to several anti-vaccination lists for research purposes.  These give a useful insight into the thinking of many people working in alternative medicine, particularly those with vocal tendencies.  One of the fascinating things about alternative practitioners is that many of them acquire their understanding of medicine though popular media, in particular facts and figures which are then thrown in the face of a skeptical argument. Tropes about vaccination have been particularly prevalent, from the long discredited theories of Andrew Wakefield to more recent concerns about swine flu vaccines.

I was alerted today, via one of these lists, to this article in the Independent on Sunday:

Billions wasted on swine flu pandemic that never came

How did the World Health Organisation get its prediction of a 7.5 million death toll so wrong?


http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/billi...

The opening paragraph makes  many numerical assertions regarding predictions and the realities of swine flu.

"Yet predictions that the global death toll from swine flu could reach 7.5 million were well off the mark. At most, the virus killed 14,000 people, and some of those had pre-existing conditions or had been infected by other dangerous bugs as well. Against a background death toll from seasonal flu of up to 500,000, the new H1N1 strain was invisible."

Now, there are no sources cited for any of these claims however the World Health Organisation (WHO) maintain a page providing information on the virus allowing some of the claims above to be checked.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html

The claim about 'at most 14,000 people' is wrong. As of 14th May 2010 there were at least 18036 deaths, with the WHO making clear the caveat:
The reported number of fatal cases is an under representation of the actual numbers as many deaths are never tested or recognized as influenza related.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2010_05_14/en/index.html

As an aside the wikipedia page quotes the deaths as being "14,286", providing a citation from a document published in January. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic#cite_note-menu-1

The WHO also provide briefing documents on comparing deaths from Swine Flu with those from the 500,000 deaths from seasonal flu.  These make clear that such a comparison is flawed, rather than providing evidence that H1N1 is invisible.

Efforts to assess the severity of the H1N1 influenza pandemic sometimes compare numbers of confirmed deaths with those estimated for seasonal influenza, either nationally or worldwide. Such comparisons are not reliable for several reasons and can be misleading.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/briefing_20091222/en/index.html

It should also be noted that the WHO give the deaths from seasonal influenza as being 250-500,000, not the higher figure alone.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/index.html

I don't have time to critique the rest but readers might want to ask why there is no evidence presented for any of the other assertions made in the article?  Not least those that swine flu was a big pharma conspiracy.  In fact if people are really interested and have the time then they should look at the ideological beliefs of Wolfgang Wodarg, the Council of Europe politician quoted, and ask themselves why are capitalist entities being blamed for possible public health concerns?

 

*update*

 

I realise that that last question of mine is somewhat opaque.  What I would like readers to notice is that politicians of the European Old Left responding on healthcare concerns might be letting their ideological understanding of the interplay between money and power influence their accusations in the absence of evidence.

 

*update 2*

as per my comment below, Effect Meaure have commented on Wolfgang Wodarg's accusations and copied a statement from the WHO rebutting accusations of conflicts of interest and fake pandemics.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2010/h1n1_pandemic_20100122/en...

 

 

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